While the world is facing rising geopolitical risks and multiple economic reversals, the Indian government has shown unusual optimism. According to the latest official economic assessment report, the Indian government predicts that the next fiscal year (2024-25) GDP will grow more than 7% and is likely to maintain this rapid growth trend over the coming years. This prediction based on stable growth in domestic demand and private investment shows that the pace of growth of the Indian economy on the global stage will lead.

The report noted that while recent events in the Red Sea could raise further concerns about global supply chain disruptions, which will exacerbate the trend of slowing global trade growth in 2023, the Indian government has strong confidence in resisting the emerging economic turmoil and that this optimism is backed by a firm belief in the resilience of the Indian economy, as well as support for a range of economic and fiscal policy measures.

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, the Government of India will announce its final budget ahead of the general election this summer, and the market generally expects that the budget will include a series of policy measures to stimulate economic growth. The start of the new fiscal year will mark the Indian Treasury’s optimistic forecast for economic growth prospects consistent with the estimates made by the Governor of the Indian Central Bank at the World Economic Forum in Davos, compared to the market’s forecast for a 6.3% GDP growth for this fiscal year (2023-24) and the Indian Government’s forecast shows stronger growth confidence.

The Global Rating also predicts that India will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy in the next three years, and that by 2030, India will surpass Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy.In its report, the Indian Treasury Ministry noted that, thanks to a series of reform measures implemented by the government over the past decade, it is entirely possible that the Indian economy will grow at a rate of more than 7% in the coming years, driven by the financial sector and other structural reforms.

In the upcoming fiscal year 2023-24, India’s economy grew at 7.3 percent thanks to support from industrial policies and fiscal spending, becoming one of the world’s fastest growing major economies.The Ministry of Finance also stressed that priorities for future reforms include education, health, energy security, reducing the compliance burden on small, and improving gender balance in the labour market.

The performance of the Indian stock market also testifies to the strong growth of the economy, which has now surpassed Hong Kong to become the world’s fourth largest stock market. The government predicts that by 2030, India’s GDP will grow from the current $3.7 trillion to $7 trillion.

However, analysts warn that the long-term high-speed growth of the Indian economy is also facing challenges.At present, the Indian economy is dominated by the consumer and service sectors, and in order to long-term high-speed growth, India needs to solve barriers such as labor market bottlenecks and trade barriers by promoting foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry, thereby boosting the overall competitiveness of the economy.